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2018-12

Mechanical Industry: Continue with bullish machine tools and construction machinery

Caterpillar is going against the trend by increasing its presence in the Chinese market. At the same time, due to the attractiveness of the Chinese market, Taiwan's machine tool industry is highly favored by Japanese capital. According to a research report by Orient Securities on January 9, overseas markets show the following: The average P/E ratio for industrial machinery on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange in 2010 was 16.72, with a weekly decline of 5.12%; on the Japan Exchange, the average P/E was 35.11, with a weekly decline of 0.54%; on the German Exchange, the average P/E was 43.88, with a weekly increase of 2.96%; on the UK Exchange, the average P/E was 17.29, with a weekly increase of 0.93%; and on the US Exchange, the average P/E was 22.79, with a weekly increase of 3.4%. Market highlights and investment advice: Caterpillar is bullish on the Chinese market despite the overall trend. Richard Lavin, President of Caterpillar Group, stated, "We are optimistic and confident about China's future." Lavin mentioned that the construction equipment industry is expected to grow by about 10% in 2012 compared to 2011. Caterpillar is one of the heavy equipment manufacturers seeking rapid growth in China and has invested in a range of projects, from residential to infrastructure development. However, Lavin warned in November last year that the Chinese construction equipment market might face overcapacity in the next two years, which could lead to price pressure for Caterpillar. Caterpillar expects China's GDP to grow by 8.5-9% in 2012, with industrial growth expected to align with GDP growth. This forecast aligns with that of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, which predicts China's GDP growth will slow from 9.2% in 2011 to 8.9% in 2012. Caterpillar also sees opportunities in China's mining market. In November last year, the company bid $885 million to acquire Era Mining Machinery, headquartered in Hong Kong, to strengthen its mining business. Due to the attractiveness of the Chinese market, Taiwan's machine tool industry is highly sought after by Japanese capital. After Taiwan and Mainland China signed the ECFA in 2010, some machine tool exports to the mainland enjoy zero tariff treatment, sparking investment enthusiasm from major Japanese machine tool manufacturers in Taiwan. In November last year, Kurashiki Machinery decided to establish its first overseas production base in the Houli Industrial Park of Taiwan's Central Taiwan Science Park Phase III. Although the investment was only NT$264 million, further investment is possible. Officials from the Ministry of Economic Affairs stated that Kurashiki Machinery is very optimistic about the mainland Chinese market and hopes to use Taiwan as a production base. Following the impact of the March 11 earthquake in Japan and the surge in the yen, Japanese companies are seeking overseas backup bases to diversify risks. Especially with the completion of the ECFA between Taiwan and Mainland China, Taiwan has more development advantages than other regions. It is expected that Taiwan's machine tool exports will exceed $4 billion in 2011, potentially surpassing Italy for the first time to become one of the top three global machine tool export regions, second only to Japan and Germany.

2018-12-28

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